1.BN may expect worst economic scenario later in the year;
2.Opposition parties-PR and others,in both West and East Malaysia, are in deep split;
3.Anwar is deeply stuck in various court cases and sex allegations
4.Residual effect from massive allocations in Sarawak state elections will still benefit BN;
1. Hikes in electricity tariff , sugar, fuel etc will take time to be absorbed by consumers/voters;
2. East Malaysian urban votes will be lost to BN, crucial in recapturing Parliamentary BN’s 2/3 majority
3. SUPP, MCA, Gerakan, MIC are still in deep trouble and will not be able to deliver
4. EC’s rules may be drastically changed to give more advantage to BN eg the 30 amendments to election rules are still in the work quietly;
So: the chances of a July general elections are still hanging in the air; it only takes Parliament to be dissolved, the EC announced election in 1 week, nomination another week, and polling in another week-all in less than 1 month’s time you can have a new PM with a nenewed mandate from the Malaysian voters!
So the dire projections:
1. The mock elections by UMNO turned real after it was found that the UMNO/BN workers were somehow motivated to fight back for their past glory-like a cornered animal. The absence from the government seats of the 2 most developed states -with all the lucrative positions that go with it, were too much for these use-to-comfortable-life UMNO/BN blue bloods. So the mock election turned real-which also took the Opposition by surprise-even the Bersih march planned on July 9th was overtaken by events;
2. The non-BN parties are still squabbling over seats allocations, with numerous seats facing multi-corner fights.
3. The rakyat somehow behave in a `mature’ way this time: they discovered the benefits of a more balanced government and also more balanced composition of the Opposition parties! Over the last 3 years+ they witness the running of a mixed government in the country. The world didn’t come tumbling down. Malaysia did not break up-it is still 1 Malaysia. They did not notice the difference when they drive pass the border of a state run by BN/UMNO or another run by PR-unlike when you drive to Singapore/Thailand. They learn to live with it and even enjoy it, quietly appreciating the more `balanced’ media reporting now, where Opposition politicians/parties used to have no chance to be featured in the news-though the pro-BN slant is still there. Quietly they want to enjoy the best of both worlds-conservative as they always are-but the conservative position have shifted to one where the coexistence of parties is the new `safe thing’ to do. So they retain the same proportion in the parliament and improve somewhat in the state governments for the PR, with Perak going back to PR, and Perlis and Terengganu added as bonus with 1-seat majorities.
4. The Opposition now has a more mixed composition-those new comers with grass root support did made it eg some PSM candidates, 1-2 MCLm candidates from the PJ areas managed to knock off an amateur mobile phone based video maker and some of the frogs from PKR etc. The Oposition managed to deny the 2/3 majority by BN on account of the seats won by the non-PR parties. The PR can’t ask for more: they were ill-prepared and only the residual Reformasi ground sentiments carried them through this time. It was considered a good outcome as at last the PKR was cleaned of the frogs-and left a leaner self as before. The non-PR MPs are now outside the party.
5. Another aspect of this outcome is: it derived from a trend in the 2008 general elections: the marginal seats for PR in state level are less than their marginal seats in Parliament. So while the BN managed to launch their counter-offensive at great costs that almost bankrupt the federal coffer, they succeed only to stall the PR advance in the parliament -but not to reverse it. That was considered a good return to their big investments! The BN bought time for themselves to renew their image, but not going back to the good ole days…It some how mirror many federated countries eg Australia, Canada, India, where the Opposition can only capture Federal power only after obtaining a majority in the state governments.
5. The East Malaysia scenario is more intriguing: the 2 states are now holding ever more important leverage over Putrajaya as the Opposition gains-while improved by 100% from 3 seats previously, was still not enough for the Opposition to take power. Worse for the Opposition: they are now also some local parties who made some headways in the Parliament seats. Without them the PR cannot deny the BN’s 2/3 majority in Parliament. So the 2 states are making demand to the BN as well as PR. PR is forced to grant more autonomy to their East Malaysian party branches as BN agreed to give ways to Sarawak and Sabah BN some major concessions eg borneonisation of the civil service will go up to 90%, instead of just 50% currently. TV and radio stations licenses are granted to Sarawak and Sabah for the first time ever. Health, Education, Local governments and police are devolved from Putrajaya to their respective Eastern states-as most federated states do in other parts of the world-which also give substance to the provision of the 2 Eastern states as equal partners in the troika Malaysia federation. English return as the official language in the Eastern states and there is no more official religions in the 2 eastern states -as also provided in the original 20/18 point Malaysia agreement…The adoption of the `Borneo agenda’ of Jeffrey Kitinggan was engineered to absorb all the local parties into the new expanded BN again! This survival tactic was tried before after 1969’s lose by Perikatan-the BN’s predecessor. UMNO has no choice-they could lose Federal power if the 50 seats from the Eastern states jump over to PR, where 6 have already been lost. PR is looking east with a headache because previously they were thinking of capturing Putrajaya without the Eastern bros. Now they are toying with the idea of the first ever Borneo Deputy Prime Minister to win over the the Eastern bros, and oil royalty go up to 30% for the Eastern states, with more goodies to come…