From the 2008 GE results there is a study that found a clue to the trend of the future elections: BN has more marginal seats-thus exposed to PR’s capture in coming elections. Thus more states eg Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Terengganu may fall to PR. Similarlt the PR has more marginal Parliamentary seats-exposing them to BN’s capturing. Thus after some adds and substractions the status quo may remain for PR, stalling or slowing their march to Putrajaya. If this observation become true in coming 13yh GE it will means that the change in Putrajaya will have to wait at least another general elections! A more optimistic assessment of the future of election trend by BN, reported below, seems to confirm this view. But you need to discount some how for their enthusiasm and self-cheerleading!
B Nantha Kumar
Barisan Nasional looks set to retain control of the federal government in the next general election (GE) if it is held in November, with Sabah and Sarawak once again being the saviours, according to a survey.
And after Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s announcement last Thursday that the Internal Security Act (ISA) would be abolished, the chances seem brighter.
However, a source said the survey conducted by the Prime Minister’s Department revealed that it would only be a simple majority with about 140 seats.
He added that BN would face a tough fight in the Peninsula, but the ruling coalition was expected to clinch 54 of the 56 parliamentary seats up for grabs in Sabah and Sarawak.
“The only concern now is DAP; the Chinese in East Malaysia are still supportive of the party,” he said.
Based on the report, the source, who is a senior officer with the PM’s Deparment, said that DAP would take two seats for certain in Sarawak – Kuching and Stampin.
As for DAP’s strong performance in the recently-concluded Sarawak state election, the source said that the general election would be different.
“We must understand that state elections are different. One of the major factors why DAP won 13 seats in the state election is that the party top guns from the Peninsula were campaigning there.
“But this won’t happen during general elections,” he added.
Furthermore, he said DAP was suffering from internal problems in Sarawak, and the party did not command the support of the indigenous people.
On the chances of other other Pakatan Rakyat parties, PKR and PAS, the source claimed that it would be a miracle if the two win even a single seat in Sarawak.
“In Sabah, it will be a total wipeout for the opposition,” he stressed. “BN will retain Sabah with a 100% win.”
He said that the Kota Kinabalu constituency incumbent Dr Hiew King Cheu, who is also Sabah DAP committee chairperson, was also not certain of retaining his seat.
“DAP’s hope of capturing at least two seats, Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan, is also bleak,” he added.
Component parties critical
However, the source admitted that the next general election would be the toughest ever with regard to the Peninsula.
“While Najib is confident of reviving Umno, the major concern is the coalition parties,” he said, adding that the survey noted that MCA, MIC and Gerakan were in “critical condition”.
The report stated that MCA was unable to win back Chinese votes whereas MIC faced numerous internal problems.
“Gerakan is considered a sinking ship and Umno may just fully neglect the party after the next general election,” said the source.
The survey showed that the Pakatan-held Parliament seats of Teluk Kemang, Indera Mahkota, Kuala Terengganu, Lembah Pantai, Titiwangsa, Merbok, Nibong Tebal, Padang Serai, Kuala Langat, Kelana Jaya, Ketereh, Tanah Merah and Bagan Serai could fall to BN.
The BN seats considered shaky were Bukit Katil, Temerloh, Labis, Segamat, Sepang, Ayer Hitam Lumut, Arau and Dungun.